Sterling spent 2025 in a tight 1.24–1.33 range against the dollar. As of May 2026, the cable rate sits near the mid-point, but UK importers running 90-day order cycles can't assume the rate they see at quote time is the rate that lands at invoice.
This piece walks through how to size FX exposure on US-origin orders, when a forward contract is worth the spread, and how the landed-cost calculator handles currency drift.
The cost of a 5% FX move
Consider a typical UK Amazon FBA reorder: 1,000 units at $14 ex-works, total US-side cost $14,000. At a 1.27 GBP/USD rate that's about £11,024. At 1.21 (sterling weaker by ~5%) the same order costs £11,570 — a £546 hit on a single shipment.
Now scale it: at $20,000 USD per month on supplier wires, a 5% FX move costs you ~£12,000 per year before duty, VAT, or freight even enter the picture. That's a marketing budget.
When a forward is worth the cost
A 90-day GBP/USD forward contract typically costs 5–15 pips above spot — call it 0.1% of the converted amount, all-in, through a non-bank FX provider like Wise Business or Revolut Business. For order sizes:
| Order USD value | Forward cost | Cost if FX moves 3% against you |
|---|---|---|
| $5,000 | ~£4 | ~£120 |
| $25,000 | ~£20 | ~£600 |
| $100,000 | ~£80 | ~£2,400 |
The break-even is roughly $5,000. Below that, the operational overhead of locking in a forward usually outweighs the protection. Above $25,000, the forward is free insurance.
How to model FX in your landed cost
The Currency Exchange Impact Calculator shows the per-unit margin hit for a given FX move. Practical rule of thumb for UK buyers in 2026:
- Add a 2–3% FX contingency to any quote you give downstream customers before you've wired the supplier.
- For orders > £20,000, lock the rate when you place the PO via a forward.
- Track Bank of England spot data weekly if you have monthly POs.
Outlook
Market consensus for end-2026 GBP/USD is in the 1.22–1.30 zone, with Bank of England policy path the main local driver. The Fed's path matters more — if the FOMC cuts faster than the BoE, sterling strengthens and US imports get cheaper for UK buyers. The reverse compresses margin.
Either way, don't quote landed cost off a one-day FX snapshot.
